Gartner Says Mobile Messages to Surpass 2.1 Trillion Messages in Asia/Pacific and Japan in 2010
Short Messaging Services (SMS) and mobile voice services are proving
resilient even during financial crisis, as SMS in Asia/Pacific and
Japan are on pace to reach 1.9 trillion messages in 2009, a 15.5
percent increase from 2008, according to Gartner, Inc. In 2010, SMS
volumes are forecast to surpass 2.1 Trillion, a 12.7 percent increase
Gartner analysts said that messaging traffic and revenues continue to be driven by new subscribers in developing markets.
"Strong organic growth continues in Asia’s developing markets, with
marginal subscribers turning to low-cost messaging as an entry-level
service," said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner.
"In the mature markets of the Asia/Pacific region, SMS has seen
sustained healthy growth as a result of steady price declines and
increasingly generous SMS and data bundles."
The impact of the financial crisis has been muted in Asia/Pacific
and resulted in little impact on the estimates and forecasts for 2009.
Carriers are expecting somewhat slower messaging traffic increases
going into 2010, but in many cases there will still be
Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) traffic picked up in Asia during
2008, driven by reduced prices and increased uploading of pictures to
social networking sites.
"’Big bucket’ or large inclusive SMS and MMS bundles will also
increase traffic by lowering the price barriers to usage," said Mr.
Gupta. "At the same time, competition and network efficiencies will
continue to drive down the retail price of SMS and MMS for consumers.
Application traffic will continue to support growth, especially in the
SMS growth will, however be, slow as mobile markets approach
saturation and other types of messaging, including mobile e-mail and
mobile instant messaging, become more widely adopted. Integrated
messaging clients on handsets will facilitate adoption of alternative
messaging services, as will the use of alternative rich-messaging
services on smartphones.